NAR's Economist Makes Strong Statements on the Housing Market
Lawrence Yun, the long-term chief economist for the National Association of REALTORS recently surprised a lot of industry players with the declaration that we're in a housing recession. So what's really going on in real estate here and around the country?
There have certainly been changes and there are more on the horizon, with inflation continuing to rise and the Fed's response in rising interest rates which ultimately affects borrowing capacity for things like mortgages.
There's a sense of downturn because the pace of the last two years has changed. But, it's critical to remember that the last two years - particularly in Florida - have seen unprecedented trends in the real estate market. Returning to the market levels of 2019 isn't such a bad thing because that wasn't a bad year for real estate sellers OR buyers.
One of the major real estate changes that hasn't received as much focus is the brokerage side and the proliferation in recent years of companies involved in transacting real estate. Now that the market has shifted, many of those companies are facing the music... and folding. While that's unfortunate for the professionals who migrated to newer models in the last 24 months, ultimately it reinforces the fundamentals of the market.
Premier Sotheby's CEO, Budge Huskey, remains bullish for reasons that are fundamental. While the fads that have flooded real estate in the last few years are washed away by a return to 'normalcy,' the economic fundamentals remain clear. Florida's rising population and rising average income in communities like Sarasota increase the demand for housing, sustaining long-term equity that returns significant value to homeowners.